Sovereign credit ratings of Ukraine in the next two years may be reduced unanimous major international rating agencies. Yesterday Fitch downgraded Ukraine rating outlook to "negative." This opinion is shared by agencies S & P and Moody `s. Fitch Experts no longer believe that Ukraine is able this year to negotiate with the IMF. In this situation, the government should look for alternative sources of loans amid rising cost of loans, the newspaper "Kommersant".

International rating agency Fitch Ratings yesterday affirmed the long-term and short-term ratings of default Ukraine in foreign and local currency ratings at "B". However, the rating outlook of the country was downgraded from "stable" to "negative." His rating agency did not change for about two years - the last adjustment was made in October 2011, when the weather Ukraine's sovereign rating was downgraded from "positive" to "stable". Now the "negative" outlook on Ukraine - all the three leading rating agencies. The first such reduction performed earlier Moody `s, maintaining the country's rating at 'B3'. Agency Standard & Poor `s rating worsened in December, from 'B +' to 'B', keeping it on" negative "outlook, which was later confirmed by the agency.

Weather refers to the direction in which the expected change in ranking for one to two years. Only facilities rating to see the list CreditWatch means possible rating change over a short period of time - 90 days. According to a report agency Fitch, worsening prognosis was due to problems in Ukraine's access to credit markets. "Significant country needs external financing predispose to risks associated with adverse changes in international capital markets," - said in a statement. The problem, according to experts Fitch, increasing stagnation in the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund.

Fitch analysts do not expect that this year the Ukrainian authorities to sign the agreement with the IMF. "The country's authorities have not gone on politically sensitive key steps: reduction of subsidies for gas prices in the domestic market to the public (the cost of which is estimated at 5% of GDP) and the transition to a more flexible exchange rate" - they explain. President Viktor Yanukovych declared inadmissible increase in gas tariffs for households and called for increased budgetary outlays.

The agency admit that Ukraine may reconsider their position only if "further sharp deterioration in external financing conditions." "Last month, the government gave a clear signal now the consensus forecast of experts is the fact that this year the agreement with the IMF will not" - agrees with the findings of the agency head of the analytical department of SP Advisors Vitaly Vavrischuk.

In this situation, the government should look for alternative sources of refinancing IMF payments over the next two years of $ 6.4 billion, in particular, by the end of 2013 the NBU should list the IMF $ 1.59 billion, and the government - $ 1.32 billion In that next year the government be paid on Eurobonds in 2012 of $ 1 billion per year Eurobonds have only to pay the coupon.

According to experts, despite a worsening global economic situation, the opportunity for placement of Eurobonds remains. "The need for public and private sector loans not less than in I quarter. After a few months the situation in the capital market stabilizes, and placement is possible, albeit at a higher rate than earlier in the year "- predicts Vitaly Vavrischuk. "Now ten Ukrainian Eurobonds maturing in 2023 traded with a yield of 9,3-9,5% per annum, with the market dominated by sellers. In this situation, the location of a new series of Eurobonds theoretically could be successful with a yield of 10%, which is unacceptable to the Ministry of Finance. Therefore, the government should wait until the end of summer when the rates may go down, but even in this scenario, profitability next year Eurobond placements remain above the start of the year ", - said Head of Corporate Finance UkrSibbanke Sergey Yahnych.

It is also important that the baseline is based on Fitch gradual recovery of the financial system. In this situation, Ukraine can return to economic growth (at 0.5-1% this year and 2.3% next) without a significant devaluation. The agency expects that rate by the end of this year will be 8.5 USD / $, and a year later - 9 € / $. The agency noted that such a reduction would be "feasible for the financial system and the economy" and would lower the sovereign rating.