1. Reducing the volume of industrial production. The decline in industrial production started from the second quarter of 2012 and continues to this day.
Negative dynamics for 2012 show the sector such as industry, transport, construction and agriculture.

Weak external demand had a negative impact on the performance of export-oriented industries - metallurgy (reduced production by 6.2% during January-December 2012. Compared to the same period last year) and engineering (- 6%).

Moreover, the leaders of the reduction in output for 2012 are: coke production and oil refining - a decline by 26.4%, manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products - by 5.8%, light industry - 5.3%.
Manufacturing output in 2012 to a volume in 2011
 
The decline in the transport sector: turnover fell by 7.6% compared with January - December 2011., Passenger - by 1.2%.

Significant reductions in 2012 occurred in most investytsiynoyemkiy industries - construction, which fell by 13.8% compared to the previous year.

The decline in agriculture in the past year was 4.5% compared with the year 2011, a decline due to lower volume yield compared to 2011 and a decrease in acreage. Agriculture in Ukraine is one of the major drivers of economic growth and the tide of foreign currency in the economy, because in 2012, the volume of the Ukrainian agricultural exports reached about 18.2 billion dollars. or 26.5% of Ukraine's total exports and imports - about 17.9 billion dollars. or 9.5% (surplus agricultural trade amounted to 0.3 billion dollars.).

Cutbacks in these key areas resulted in the reduction of GDP. According to preliminary data, GDP in the fourth quarter of 2012, GDP declined by 2.7% compared with the fourth quarter last year. According to the results in 2012 GDP grew by only 0.2%.

Among the key sectors of GDP (which will make a significant contribution to the GDP of the state) retains only positive trend trade. Retail turnover for January-December increased by 15.9% compared with 2011.

2. Contradictory dynamics of investment activity. On the one hand, despite the worsening macroeconomic situation in the country, the volume of capital investments in January-September 2012. from all sources increased by 17% and amounted to 177.5 bln.

During the first 9 months of 2012, the economy of Ukraine foreign investors FDI worth 4.32 billion dollars. Dollars, which is 8.9% below the same period in 2011

3. Disbalance of public finance. Revenue shortfall in the state budget caused skyrocketing deficits, which in January-November last year totaled 42.22 billion., Which is 31.13 billion. over the same period in 2011.

The increase in the budget deficit has specific negative economic consequences: primarily be funded protected expenditure items in the budget that are overwhelmingly socially-oriented, evidence of this is the performance of the State Budget of Ukraine for 2013.

4. Increased risks for monetary stability.

By 2012 balance of payments deficit increased almost twice in comparison with 2011 and amounted to approximately 4.2 billion USD., This state of balance creates additional risks for monetary stability. However, a key factor of stability currency is not the amount of currency that comes into the country (which reflects the balance of payments), and how much currency is in a state (foreign exchange reserves). The volume of gold reserves in 2012 decreased by 22.8% (or 7.25 billion.) And at the end of the year amounted to 24.55 billion dollars. U.S. (for the month of December decreased foreign reserves at 830.7 million dollars).

5. The volume of lending to the economy and the cost of credit.
In December 2012 refinancing of commercial banks amounted to 8.2 billion. the weighted average interest rate of 7.7% refinancing. Overall refinancing of commercial banks in 2012 amounted to 97.6 billion.

At year end, total credit to the economy amounted to 810.6 billion. According to data from the National Bank of Ukraine, the volume of lending in early 2012 increased by 2.2% (an increase of 17.35 billion.). The volume of corporate lending increased to 5.1% to 627.5 billion., With lending in local currency for the year increased by 6.4% and foreign - only 2.7%.

The cost of credit in local currency at the end of 2012 fell to 17.55% (from 23.40% in November), but in foreign currency was a rise in value to 9.30% (from 8.75% in November).

6. The negative balance of foreign trade. A negative balance of foreign trade in January-November 2012 amounted to 13.78 billion dollars. U.S. (January-November 2011 - 12.79 billion.). During the first 9 months of 2012 merchandise exports totaled 63.08 billion. U.S. imports - 76.86 billion. USA. Compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, exports of goods increased by 1.9%, imports - by 2.9%.

7. Evaluation of welfare and employment of the population of Ukraine.

From the level of welfare depends intrinsically consumer demand, which in 2012 grew by a moderate increase in social standards, an increase in real disposable income, adjusted for price factor for January-December by 14.4% compared with the same period in 2011 , a gradual decline in arrears of wages to 950.5 million. (At the end of 2011, this debt amounted to over 1.1 billion.).

Regarding employment, the unemployment rate (ILO methodology) among the economically active population aged 15-70 years was 7.4% and the working age - 8.0%, in 2011 compared with the year below 0.4 M. Mr. and 0.5 percentage points accordingly.

The macroeconomic situation in Ukraine is unfavorable for business and investment activity in the country, as evidenced analyzed macroeconomic indicators. Moreover, the situation may be further complicated, because the dynamics of foreign investment falls, in consequence greatly increase business needs to find new sources of resources, one of which is loans that are expensive to date.

The gradual decline in domestic consumer demand for domestic producers and reduce amounts borrowed funds may cause further collapse for domestic products that affect economic activity in the country.

Materials prepared by analysts of Kyiv City Association of Employers
http://www.kmar.kiev.ua/