Bank analysts see no prospects of GDP growth forecast lowered it from 2.5% to 1% per year.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts growth of the Ukrainian economy (gross domestic product, GDP) in 2013 to 1%, while in October last year it expected its growth by 2.5%.

The Bank has also deteriorated to zero assessment of the change of GDP over the past year, while a further three months ago, the bank relied on its growth by 1%.

This is stated in the review of the regional economic outlook, which the bank announced on Monday, January 21.

The Bank has made clear that such a result is affected by slowing the Ukrainian economy in the last two quarters of 2012, in particular, the acceleration of decline in industrial production in December.

The bank admits that in 2014 and beyond, growth may resume at a faster pace, but it is important that the National Bank conducted a coordinated monetary policy in accordance with the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund.

"The Ukrainian economy has been affected by the influence of a complex external environment and domestic policy uncertainties in some important areas," - said the EBRD in the document. According to him, Ukraine's economy is heavily dependent on the eurozone, and the developments in the EU will remain important for the country's growth and economic stability.

The bank said that lower external demand and depressed prices for steel led to a reduction in mechanical engineering and metallurgy, and the completion of significant public investment in infrastructure related to Euro 2012, - to slow down construction. In addition to agricultural production also fell in 2012, after an unusually cold winter, which then proceeded very hot summers.

At the same time lively consumer demand due to rising real wages, has helped to keep the growth of the retail sector, although it has slowed down in recent years.

"Although the government implemented some of the conditions of the IMF program in 2010 (including parametric pension reform), the critical steps necessary to stabilize the gas sector, including the increase in tariffs for households still face political resistance" - indicates the EBRD.

He also notes that to maintain the stability of the hryvnia in the last year the central bank tightened monetary policy and used a combination of foreign exchange intervention and administrative measures, but the growth of credit to the private sector has stopped. Bank adds that in 2012, the National Bank has lost about a quarter of international reserves, which now cover less than three months after the projected imports.

"The introduction of a package of social spending and wages before October parliamentary elections increased fiscal pressure," - said in the review.

As reported last week, forecast economic growth in Ukraine in 2013 has worsened the World Bank: in 2012 - from 2% to 0.5%, in 2013 - from 3.5% to 2.2% in 2014 - from 4% to 3.2%.

Ukraine's GDP in the third quarter of 2012, according to the State Statistics Service, fell by 1.3% compared to the third quarter of 2011, while in the first quarter, an increase of 2% in the second - 3%.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, with reference to government estimates to estimate the growth of the economy as a whole for the year 2012 at the level of 1%, while in the 2012 budget pawned index 3.9%.

The state budget for 2013 is based on the forecast of GDP growth 3.4%.

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